Let’s start with the players before the coaches. You have to start with the man calling the signals on offense, so it comes down to Brady vs. Goff.

I live in New England, so saying anything negative about Brady is considered sacrilege, if not full on blasphemy. That being said, there’s a reason he’s called the GOAT. The man keeps winning, and when the playoffs come around, he perfectly prepared for the defense in front of him. It’s been said (on this blog) before, but facing the Pats is death by 1000 cuts. When it comes to beating a team with dinking and dunking, the Pats will suck you right in. After you’ve pulled your D up close to stop the slant or curl routes, Brady will hit you over the top. Even without premier options (Gronk is still good but not the best TE in the league anymore), Brady can beat you. This week, Romo let us all know that the play was going to Gronk split up (man, Romo is good in the booth, huh?). Sure enough, Brady showed the onions to get the ball to Gronk exactly where it needed to be. There is one issue for Brady, and that’s pressure up the middle. Brady is not a mobil QB. He’s a pure pocket passer. Obviously that’s worked for him to the tune of 5 Super Bowl victories, but that can make things difficult for him. The Giants beat him in the 2 Super Bowls because of their pressure up front (and poor coaching by Belichick not changing the offensive scheme, but that’s neither here nor there).

When we look at the Rams young signal caller, it’s almost hard to believe that a couple years ago people were calling him a bust. I guess that’s what happens when Jeff Fisher is your head coach. (Listen, when he didn’t have an MVP candidate at QB in Steve McNair, he never looked like anything more than average as a head coach.) With Sean McVay, though, Goff has become an MVP caliber QB. McVay puts Goff into position to succeed like no other HC/OC in the league. Goff masterfully uses play action passes and creative sets to find the best option on each play. Last season he threw for 3800 yards with 28 TD’s and only 7 INT’s. This season, he threw for 4600 yards with 32 TD’s and 12 INT’s. Those a great numbers for a 3rd year QB. He in growing in making difficult throws, being a mobil quarterback, and letting his arm do the work. His is great throwing the ball over the top of defenses. He does occasionally become inaccurate. If he’s out of rhythm, he can let the ball sail high, a death sentence for any QB. If things aren’t ideal for him, it can turn into a long day for the offense. Since they have McVay calling plays, that doesn’t happen often, but a game like the Bears game this year (20-44 180 yards, 0 TD’s 4 INT’s). If you think that cant happen against a Bill Belichick defense, you’re kidding yourself. If you’re likewise thinking that Goff can’t come into this game and throw for 340 yards with 3 TD’s, you’re also joking.

Advantage – Patriots
Brady is the GOAT, and he’s beaten Mahomes and Rivers already in these playoffs. He’s looked like classic Brady so far. Goff could very well come in and play the game of his life, though the committee (of one) doesn’t think you can choose someone over Brady in the Super Bowl (even though he’s lost 3 Super Bowls). Brady won’t be phased by anything that happens over the next 2 weeks, we don’t know that for sure with Jared Goff.

The best part of these next two weeks is the abundance of NFL news and dissection that happens. Over the next two weeks, the committee (of one) will break down how every position group and the coaching staffs matchup against each other. The Hall of Fame votes come out in the next few weeks as well as some event that is sure to shock up (Eugene Robinson?). To quote the great moral philosopher, Bart Scott, “Can’t wait!”

Let me just say, that was a treat, wasn’t it? Those games were the best of times and the worst of times. The actual game play was amazing. Two overtime games for the first time ever? My goodness, it was almost too much to ask for. Almost.
Then came the refs.. If the players were that good, the refs were that bad. In the AFC game, there were phantom roughing the passer calls and the inconsistency with offensive/defensive pass interference was difficult to stomach. But before all that, we had to stomach the worst no-call in playoff history.
In what world in this not PI:

• 

Um, hello? Is this real life? Most of us know that refs don’t decide every game with one call, but this one did. This game all but seals the victory for the Saint. I know, I know, they still had to score (field goal or TD), and nothing is a given in football. But let’s be real here. Their win % at that point would have been something like 99%, a statistical reality. The Rams were gifted that game. Did I pick the Rams? Sure. It just doesn’t feel like they won it. Still, the Rams found a way to stay close and scratch out a win in OT. They didn’t make the call, but they certainly made the most of what happened. Even without Todd Gurley in a useful role throughout the game, the Rams stayed in the fight. The Saints just couldn’t put them away (maybe that’s because of a blow PI call or two).

The Pats-Chiefs game was beautiful. For a quick second, though, let’s appreciate Tony Romo. The guy was calling the play calls before they happened. He lets the viewers into the mind of the play callers and like this is Madden. He’s the best in the business right now, no doubt about it. To the game, we saw a heck of a game between Brady and Mahomes. This is the type of game that players can grow from, and hopefully the young MVP (to be) will do just that. Just a note* – you cannot give Tom Brady 2 minutes and 3 timeouts left on the clock and think it’ll all be okay. Death by 1000 cuts. It was classic TB12, and it worked to perfection. You have to beat Brady and Belichick, because they aren’t going to just give you a game in the playoffs. The Chiefs couldn’t take this one. The Patriots did, and they have a heck of a shot in Atlanta in two weeks.

Rams-Patriots Super Bowl LIII

It’s going to be a doozy.

You know who gets to benefit from the football this weekend? We do. This is going to be some great football over the next few hours, and no doubt, the winners will be the two teams worthy of being in the Super Bowl. We don’t get that every year (remember the 95 playoffs when the 49ers and Cowboys played before the Super Bowl?). The committee (of one) is surprised about one thing this year, though. The level of QB play has been phenomenal is in contrast to last years Championship teams. This year: Brady, Brees, Mahomes, and Goff. Last year: Brady, Foles, Keenum, and Bortles (yuck). The league has swung strongly towards the strength of quarterback play, remember that going forward today.

AFC Championship

Chiefs – 35 Patriots – 31
In my lifetime, I’ve seen the Red Sox, Cubs, Cavaliers, and Eagles all get over the hump and win their prospective championships. This may be the year for Andy Reid to get his, as well. When you have Mega Man running point, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill moving around the field, and a defense that can do just enough to slow down the opposition, you can make it to Atlanta. No one should ever joyfully bet against Brady and Belichick, but this team isn’t what is was in years past. The running game is impressive for the Pats, but they’ll have to score first to take the wind out of the Chiefs sails. If they can get multiple scores early, they’ll be able to keep this game in their hands. Arrowhead will be rocking today, though, as Andy Reid gets back to the Super Bowl with this high powered offense.

NFC Championship

Rams – 42 Saints – 40
After the committee (of one) watched the Rams dismantle the Cowboys defense last week, there is little doubt of how high this team can go. With McVay and (Super Bowl winning defensive coordinator) Wade Phillips, the Rams are locked and loaded for this week. The score might reach up to the heavens with all the offense, but the Rams have more tools up front (see Donald, Suh, and Brockers) to get after Drew Brees. The Saints are at home, though, and that makes a big difference. Beating the Saints in New Orleans this season may well be like killing a honey badger in its burrow. The Rams are going to have to go in and take this game because Drew Brees and Sean Payton won’t give it to them. With Marcus Peter, Aqib Talib, and Nickell Robey-Coleman, the Rams will have enough to take the edge off a deadly Saints attack.

If we go into the Super Bowl with Chiefs vs. Rams, it’ll be a show for the ages. Now let’s go watch those games!

I’m not crying, you’re crying! Well, there were several predictions that were wrong this weekend, but that’s what makes the NFL great. Time for a breakdown.

NFC

Rams 30 Cowboys 22
I don’t know if you following boxing, but this match mirrored the recent Canelo-GGG fight. Before the fight, people said Canelo just dodged and ran. They said he couldn’t come right at GGG and beat him. As it turned out, Canelo came straight at GGG and beat him up for the win. The exact same thing happened in this game. All week people said the Rams weren’t as tough as the Cowboys (and seriously underestimated that talented O-line). Quick sidebar – 16 years ago, the committee (of one) faced Rams center John Sullivan in a high school game and Sullivan mopped the floor with a 6’3 300LB nose tackle then. That was a humbling experience at that point in the education from John Sullivan. Back to the game, the Rams offense ran the ball straight down Cowboys throat all game to the tune of 273 yds and 3 TD’s. Wow. If you told me those would be Jared Goff’s numbers at the end of the game, that would have been more believable. The better team with the better coaching won. Props to the Rams, as the Cowboys head to the Pro Bowl and the offseason.

Saints 20 Eagles 14
Well, all “good” things must come to an end, and it looks like Nick Foles time in Philly is done. His run ended when Alshon Jeffrey dropped that pass. That being said, Eagles fans should be proud of their run and that they went out swinging. The Saints dogged a bullet in this game. If you told someone that the Saints would only score 20 points in a game, you wouldn’t feel too confident that the Saints won. The Saints were positive in the turnover margin (thanks to Drew Brees not losing both of his fumbles), which was the difference in the game. You can’t give talented teams like the Saints the ball more often than they are supposed to get it. Still, the Saints need to clean up their game plan to have a realistic shot against a loaded Rams squad.

AFC

Chiefs 31 Colts 13
Was something wrong with Andrew Luck’s arm or was it just me? A lot of his passes seemed to die off mid throw, and something just didn’t seem right. Patrick Maholmes looked like the MVP that he may be with throws all over the field. The Chiefs had more talent, and it showed. Kelce was near unstoppable on that field. The dome team looked affected by the snow, and the outdoor team looked like it was unaffected by the snow. The Colts are building a contender, but they’re still a year or two off. The talent level is subpar to the elite teams in the AFC. The Chiefs get to host the AFC championship against the Patriots in sub-zero temperatures this week. If Eric Berry is back this week, Kansas City will need to make reservations for Atlanta.

Patriots 41 Chargers 28
This is what they call an old fashioned butt whooping. It was 35-7 at halftime, and the game was over. Sony Michel was happy to land 3 TD’s, and Rex Burkhead added another one for good measure. New England dominated TOP 38:20-21:40, and almost had 500 yards to go with being +2 in turnover differential. The Chargers came out flat from the jump, and the Patriots took advantage. It seems that reports of the Patriots death have been greatly exaggerated. Make it 8 straight AFC championship games for the GOAT and Bill Belichick.

Championship predictions are coming soon. Now that the Cowboys are gone (sad), your humble writer can enjoy some football without the anxiety and worry.

Every year at this time, we always look at the Head Coaching positions, which is incredibly important, but what about the staff as a whole? Which staff inspires confidence? What team needs everything right to make a run further into playoffs? They’re ranked low to high:

8. San Diego Chargers
Anthony Lynn is a good head coach, and this is his first foray into the playoffs. He has Ken Whisenhunt to lean on for the offense and Gus Bradley running the D, but this will be a test by fire. A win in the Wild Card was good (but too close). To beat a coaching staff later on this list, it’ll take some serious coaching acumen.

7. Indianapolis Colts
Dan Orlovsky has spoken ad nauseam about Frank Reich’s decision early in the season to go for the win instead of the tie against Houston early in the season. That seemed to instill a confidence in this team that it road to the playoffs. Reich knows how to win (biggest comeback in college and the NFL as a QB + Super Bowl champ last year), but like Lynn, this is his first shot at the playoffs. Matt Eberflus has done an amazing job extracting all the talent out of this defense, Nick Sirianni has done everything to help Andrew Luck stay vertical this season. A win over the Chiefs will help this group.

6. Dallas Cowboys
Jason Garrett is the king of mediocrity, but he has his team back in the Divisional Round after a year hiatus. Something has clicked with this team, and Scott Lineman deserves credit for making it work on offense. Jerry says they’ve been holding back plays for the playoffs. Well, this is the week to take them out of the bag. On D, Kris Richard and Rod Marinelli have molded Dallas into a top 5 unit. Garrett will have to get out of the Divisional Round to be anything more than the Marvin Lewis of the NFC.

5. Los Angeles Rams
Sean McVay may be a cyborg with a computer-like memory. The man is a wonder-kid, and apparently everyone who knows him is up for a coaching job these days (even his paper boy). He cannot let the Rams come out flat against Dallas like they did against the Falcons last year. Wade Phillips is a Super Bowl winning D Coordinator. There is no reason they shouldn’t make the NFC championship with this talent and coaching staff. Win, and you’ll see this number a little different next year.

4. Kansas City Chiefs
What more can be said about Andy Reid that hasn’t already been said? Losing Kareem Hunt hurts them, but Reid has enough talent to make it to the AFC title game. He has made it to the Super Bowl before, but he has also laid some eggs as a coach before (losses to the Titans and Colts are from recent memory). Eric Bieniemy is a Head Coach caliber offensive coordinator, so that will help Kansas City in their quest. Bob Sutton has survived as their D-coordinator this season, but if he can coax just enough out of that group, they’ll be in Atlanta in a few weeks.

3. New Orleans Saints
It’s a baller move bringing in over $200,000 cash, armed guards, and the Super Bowl trophy. You can do that when you’ve already won a Super Bowl, though. Sean Payton was Sean McVay before Sean McVay was. Payton is a Parcells coaching offspring, and he knows how to motivate a team. With home field advantage throughout the playoffs, they have no reason not to advance. Even though the defense is a middling group who doesn’t sack the QB or get INT’s, they have done just enough with Dennis Allen to get wins this year.

2. Philadelphia Eagles
When you’re the reigning champs, you get respect. Even with the subtraction from the staff a year ago, Doug Peterson did a phenomenal job getting the Eagles back into the playoffs. Peterson has the respect and confidence of his (Super Bowl winning) locker room. Mike Groh has worked with him to create a monster out of Nick Foles against. The man is unreal in this system. Jim Schwartz will bring the heat and is well respected calling a defense. He will bring the pressure and make teams beat them. Expect a good game this weekend from the Eagles and Saints.

1. New England Patriots
When you have the best coach in NFL history, you kind of have to be on top, right? Don’t be daft about the Super Bowls he lost or the Browns job. He won 5 Super Bowls (out of 8!) as a Head Coach, another 2 as a D Coordinator. Josh McDaniel creates mismatches all over the field, even with subpar weapons on the outside. Belichick works with Brian Flores (maybe the next Dolphins head coach?) to disguise and confuse offenses. No one, and I mean no one, will be better prepared than the Patriots because of the man leading it all. It’ll be a resume maker if Anthony Lynn can topple this regime this weekend.

The Divisional Round starts up tomorrow, and the anticipation is killing me. The thought of losing is unbearable.. There is one cure to that for me this year. Two out of my three teams won my fantasy leagues this year. In all fairness, the one league I lost was my family league where I was dismantled by Aaron Rodgers subpar year and injuries across the board. If you’ve ever lost your fantasy leagues in a week your real team lost, you know a very real, very specific pain. But when you win both (or all three leagues and in real life), it’s a football specific joy that your non-sports friends (do these people exist?) won’t understand.

This season, I decided to go small. I got offers for two 8-person leagues, and I jumped it. Here’s my first winner:

For this league, Every Kiss Begins with Clay won with the depth of my running backs. Gurley led the charge all season, and I picked up James Connor all season. Ekeler was a great in season pickup to go with my consistent receiving core. I don’t think this was a great team, but I was in 1st or 2nd all season. Kirk Cousins, for all his lack of winning against good teams in real life, put up great fantasy numbers.

Now onto the next winner:

If you couldn’t tell, Mayfield of Dreams dominated from start to finish. Even on bye weeks, I could throw in Joe Mixon or Ty Hilton. If George Kittle had a rough matchup or was on his bye, Eric Ebron was more than sufficient. If you’re wondering how I get a team with OBJ, Michael Thomas, and Julio Jones on the same team with Christian McCaffrey, I can only point to the other people drafting. One example should serve well enough: Zach Ertz was taken in the 1st round of the draft. Ertz is a good TE, very good, but he’s not a 1st round pick in fantasy football. The rest is history. I won poll to poll. It was almost too easy. I needed a league like this, to be honest.

Well, I hope this takes your mind off the coming playoffs or keeps you reading until next time.

Go Cowboys, and Long live Every Kiss Begins with Clay and Mayfield of Dreams!

Well, the Steelers season is over, but there’s still a humming going on in the head of all their fans. The elephant in the room is what to do with Antonio Brown, if he demanded a trade, and if he is a cancer to the team.

Let’s start from the top. Antonio Brown is currently the best WR in the league. In a “down” year, he had 104 catches, 1297 yards, and 15 TD’s. Needless to say, that’s good. It’s ridiculous for someone like Peter King to suggest he’s not elite. Bologna.

So we have the best WR in football over the past 5 years, a HOF’er at this rate, but what will the Steelers do with him?

Dallas made an in-season trade for Amari Cooper for a first round pick. That trade saved the Cowboys season as they went 7-1 with Cooper in the fold. The 2019 Draft seems to have a lack of elite receiving talent, so this trade was worth it this season and next.

What could the Steelers potentially get for Brown then? The thing is, there isn’t a premium on elite receivers in the league. They’re great to have on your team, but you don’t have to have one to win. Look at the last 10 Super Bowl Champs. The last team to win with an elite #1 receiver was the Broncos with Demaryius Thomas. He only had 6 TD’s that year, and that team was built on its defense with Von Miller, Aqib Talib, Demarcus Ware, and Chris Harris being coached by Wade Phillips. The difference over the past 10 years has been one of two things: a great defense or an elite QB. That’s a better indicator of being a Super Bowl contender.

Alright, alright, what can the Steelers get for Brown? The best comparison in recent memory is probably Roy Williams. The Lions traded him and a 7th round pick for the Cowboys 1st, 3rd, and 6th round pick. Jerry Jones pays a premium for a player he wants, and that makes sense in this spot. Brown would be worth (roughly) a 1st, 3rd, and 6th round pick.

There are some teams who could spend that:
Lions – They could use an elite offensive threat to go along with Kenny Golloday, Marvin Jones, and Matt Stafford. The Lions have been middling in the NFC for years, and Brown could help put the offense into the upper echelon of arsenals.
Packers – They have Devante Adams plus this guy you may have heard of – Aaron Rodgers. If they gave Rodgers and new Head Coach Matt LaFluer a shiny new WR on the edge, they could compete for the NFC North again next season (also, Packers, PLEASE run the ball or invest in an RB who is actually, I don’t know, a running back and not a WR).
Browns – The least likely of them all because you don’t trade good receivers in your own division. (Don’t go back in time and tell the Dolphins that 10 years ago when they traded Wes Welker to the Patriots) Imagine just for a second AB running routes with Jarvis Landry, getting the ball from Baker Mayfield. That would be scary.

Will AB be traded? Maybe. Probably. I’ll put it at 75% right now.
Best bet – Packers.

I love this time of year. Playoffs are rolling, head coaching jobs are being filled, and rumors are starting to fly. Count me in!

For the most part, this draft has lined up to be a dude. There’s a LOT of defense coming in this draft. That’s not to say that these players aren’t good, it’s just that they aren’t sexy. Justin Herbert went back to Oregon to contend for the Heisman and play with his brother. Dwayne Haskins is a good prospect, but there is no consensus that he would be the best player in the draft at this point. Maybe he’ll fly up after the combine and team meetings. Kyler Murray is a different beast, though. Coming from Oklahoma’s QB pipeline helps the Heisman winner. Turning down millions from the Oakland A’s will turn a lot of heads, but it’s his play that can make teams drool. He can run and flat out throw. He’s a phenomenal prospect save for one thing: his height. Kyler is listed at 5’10, but that’s probably a stretch. 5’9 is small, even in a league that’s made it easier to throw. Drew Brees is only 6′ and Russ Wilson is Russ Wilson is 5’11, but those guys are the exceptions, not the rule. Even so, 2 inches is a big difference when you need every one you can get. It can be difficult for a 6’4 quarterback to see over towering linemen, but at his size, it would be very difficult to see the different levels of coverage. I’m not saying it’s impossible, but it’s going to be a challenge. Doug Flutie was 5’10, so that might be a comparable QB who can show you that size doesn’t always matter. If the Cardinals and Kliff Kingsbury take Murray at 1, they’ll give him every opportunity to succeed with game planning on Sundays. Let’s get him to the combine and see every last quarter inch of his height!

NY Jets

Adam Gase B

I’m a little low on this hire (like everyone else apparently), but I do see the silver lining. Adam Gase got 10 wins with a healthy Ryan Tannehill, 6 wins with Jay Cutler as QB (insert vomiting emoji), and 7 wins with a recovering Tannehill. When you have Mike Tannenbaum in the front office, you know you’ll be losing talent rather than gaining it (Jets fans know this well), and looking at it through that lens makes me feel like Gase got the most out of a tough situation. There were some player issues (Jarvis Landry, Brent Grimes), but those come from one thing: if you don’t love football as much as Gase, you’ll feel out of place. This dude eats, sleeps, breaths football. He expects that out of his players, and NY will appreciate that about him. He’s an offensive mind, and he’s hired for just that reason with Sam Darnold. If the Jets land Gregg Williams as D Coordinator, they’ll have good coaches in place plus $100 million to spend in free agency. Get this man some options on offense (time to actually spent, Mike Maccagnan) and you’ll see them flourish. If they don’t win within the next two years (playoff spot), tri-state Jets fans will rue the day they let Mike McCarthy out of their grasp.